Where Do Analysts Forecast Nvidia Stock Will Be A Year From Now?

Some Wall Street commentators have called Nvidia "the most important stock on planet earth." Even though they're half-joking with that quip, there's a healthy dose of truth behind the statement as well. In case you've been living on a deserted island for the past few years, Nvidia is a company primarily known for designing and producing computer microchips. In particular, Nvidia's chips are integral to artificial intelligence applications. Nvidia's gold-plated list of customers includes Google, Amazon, and Meta (Facebook).

Over the past 12 months ending June 4, 2024, Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA, which led the best-performing stocks of 2023) is up a scorching 205%. Yes, that's more than tripling in price in just one year. In fact, Nvidia now comprises almost 7% of the benchmark S&P 500 index, a basket of the 500 largest publicly traded U.S. companies, as measured by market cap. With such a stellar performance in the rearview mirror, some investors may wonder what's next for the miracle chip maker?

For starters, the company recently announced a 10-for-1 stock split, meaning current shareholders will receive 10 shares of stock for every one share they currently own. By increasing the number of outstanding shares, the per-share price for Nvidia will fall by a commensurate amount. Since Nvidia is presently trading at over $1,200 per share, a new post-split share price in the low-$100 range will make buying shares more affordable to smaller retail investors. With that in mind, let's take a look at where a group of professional analysts forecast NVDA to be trading 12 months from now.

Nvidia doesn't seem content to rest

Nvidia's latest quarterly earnings report blew away analyst's estimates, but investors should note there are some clouds on the horizon. Presently, demand for the company's popular GPUs (graphics processing units) is exceeding supply. This allows Nvidia to sell the hardware at a high profit margin — for now. As competitors like Advanced Micro Devices begin to release competing products, it could be harder to maintain Nvidia's first-mover advantage.

Investors recently saw a similar phenomenon when electric car manufacturer Tesla was forced to lower its prices — reducing its once juicy profit margins — in the midst of increased EV competition from other automakers (speaking of which, does an electric car really save you money in the long run?). That said, Nvidia isn't resting on its laurels perhaps as much as Tesla has. It recently released a new platform called Blackwell that the company says can, "run real-time generative AI ... at up to 25x less cost and energy consumption than its predecessor," according to a press release.

But wait, there's more. Since the Blackwell semiconductor was announced earlier, yet another new chip was unveiled, called Rubin. As founder and CEO Jensen Huang shared in his address before the COMPUTEX technology conference in Taiwan, Nvidia will be releasing new semiconductors on a "one-year rhythm," which is twice as fast as the company's previous release schedule.

Analysts can't keep up with the rallies

We realize you might be here to learn some actual numbers outlining what analysts expect from Nvidia a year from now, and we don't want to disappoint. However, because the share price is rising so rapidly, relevant estimates are difficult to source. For instance, a list of 20-plus analyst estimates from May 23, 2024, is already outdated because Nvidia's share price already surpassed many of the forecasts. To be clear, in just two weeks, share prices for Nvidia rose as much as what the most bullish of analysts were expecting over the course of an entire year.

With all this said, Bank of America did more recently up its 12-month target for Nvidia stock to $1,500 per share on June 4, 2024. While that's the most optimistic forecast, three other brokerage firms (Cantor Fitzgerald, Phillip Securities, and Rosenblatt Securities) have all raised their price forecasts for NVDA to $1,400 per share.

Note that the price of Nvidia shares as discussed in this post are reflective of a pre-stock split environment. A 10-for-1 stock split is scheduled to occur on June 7, 2024. For example, Bank of America's $1,500 per share price target will convert to $150 per Nvidia share post-stock split.